Well, 2007 is all but over. We've seen many important developments this year. The most important development of the year was by far President Bush's surge of troops to Iraq, led by General Patraeus, which turned the tide in Iraq, despite all the naysayers in the media and Congress. Insurgent violence in December was 60 percent lower than a year earlier. US casualties have dropped dramatically. Iraqis are returning rather than leaving. Businesses are open in Baghdad. Al-Qa'ida has been driven from its sanctuary in Al Anbar province. A dramatic turn of events to be sure.

But, 2008 looks to be a very decisive year both here in the US and abroad. Many things hang in the balance that will determine the course of events in many places of importance, especially with regard to the global War on Terror. Here are some of the most salient issues that will be decided, one way or another, next year:

    The fate of Iraq: Without question, the fate of Iraq will be decided in 2008. The change in strategy and surge of US forces this past year has put victory within reach. But it will take political compromises by the Shia-led Iraqi government to foster Sunni-Shia reconciliation to achieve victory. Baghdad has taken some small, positive steps toward this, but the window of opportunity will not remain open indefinitely. The US troops surged to Iraq will be withdrawn next year. If Sunni Iraqis don't see any of their grievances redressed, the Sunnis who joined forces with US troops this past year might turn their guns back against government and US forces. And with a Democrat possibly winning the White House next year, the future of the US troop presence—which has bought the current lull in violence—is in doubt. If Maliki's government fails to take bold moves toward reconciliation next year, Iraq will likely be condemned to a future of civil war.


The future of Iraq is now in his hands

    Who will lead the United States? Oh, please Lord don't let it be Hillary! This election will likely decide what happens in the war against Islamic extremists. If a Democrat comes to office, expect a rapid withdrawal from Iraq and a less aggressive pursuit of al-Qa'ida terrorists in Afghanistan and the rest of the Middle East/South Asia, as well as greater restrictions on the tools available to US national security agencies to detect and neutralize terrorists. The Patriot Act would largely fade away. Little will be done to curtail illegal immigration. Furthermore, a Democratic presidency would oust the Republican Party from all branches of government, sending the Party back to where it was in 1993. Most Republican contenders would be more likely to try to control illegal immigration and continue the War on Terror aggressively, although they would face considerable pressure to reduce the US troop presence in Iraq. But, can any of the Republican contenders muster enough support to defeat Hilary in the general election?


Our next president?

    The future of Pakistan: Bhutto's assassination has thrust Pakistan into chaos. Musharraf's government, which has been beset by attacks from Islamic extremists, now faces its toughest test to its rule. Can Musharraf quell the strife or will Pakistan descend into prolonged civil strife? Will elections go forward? What will happen to Pakistan if Musharraf is defeated in elections, assassinated, or otherwise removed from office?

    Iran's nuclear program: Iran's first nuclear reactor at Bushehr will become active next summer. Despite the recent NIE, continued suspicion remains over Iran's nuclear programs, which are probably aimed at producing nuclear weapons. If the United States is unable to rally Europe or the UN to continue pressure on Tehran over its nuclear programs next year, the mullahcracy will be free to proliferate at its leisure. Of course, the mullahs say their nuke programs are peaceful, but we'd be foolish to believe them since this a regime that said the Holocaust never happened, advocates the destruction of Israel and claims its agents are not aiding anti-US factions in Iraq.


Can we afford to let this guy have a nuke?

    The future of Afghanistan: The Taliban staged a comeback last year, increasing its pace of attacks in Afghanistan and exerting control over several rural areas in Afghanistan, bringing in reinforcements from its Pakistan sanctuaries. If the NATO allies can't find their backbone to commit additional troops to the war in Afghanistan, the situation in the country could deteriorate substantially. And if Pakistan descends further into chaos, things will get even worse in Afghanistan as the Taliban and al-Qa'ida will have free reign in the border areas.

    Just some things to ponder as you get ready to toast the New Year. Hope you all have a safe and liberal-free New Year!